SHOWDOWN AT THE REAGAN CORRAL – AT 8:35 A.M. ET:  The nationally televised Republican debte from the Reagan Library is on for tonight.  At last report, Governor Rick Perry of Texas, the current frontrunner, will attend, having skipped a debate over the weekend to supervise his state's response to wildfires. 

This will be the first presidential debate for Perry.  Eyes will be on him.  Will he be able to solidify his frontrunner status, or will he simply become the flavor of the month?  Will he show he can be a national candidate.  Or will e show – and many in the GOP fear this – that he's strictly Texas.

Eyes will also be on Mitt Romney, former frontrunner trying to win back his status after the initial Perry surge.  Will he attack Perry, quoting from Perry's own words to indict the Texas governor as an outside-the-mainstream extremist who could never get elected?

The jury tonight will be that great body of voters in the center who decide presidential elections.  Romney's problem is that, while he can appeal to that center, he fails to excite the much more conservative base.  Perry's problem is that he can excite the base, but may repel the center.

There will, of course, be tributes to Reagan flowing tonight.  But some analysts point out that Reagan might not be able to win the Republican nomination today.  A skilled politician and two-term governor of California, he might easily be seen as a compromiser, not ideologically acceptable to the Tea Party and its allies. 

While Obama's poll numbers are down, his numbers against individual Republican candidates remain quite respectable.  Beating him will not be easy.  I wish many in the Republican Party would start to understand that, and plan accordingly.

Of course, we'll be watching the debate carefully, and live blogging throughout.

September 7, 2011